Mercury Regime

Know when to turn the market maker on. Know when to turn it off.

Mercury Regime reads flow, volatility, liquidity, liquidation pressure, and smart-money activity, then turns them into an operating regime for passive liquidity: start, stay on, stand down, or run with controlled inventory bias.

Not another directional signal. A start/stop layer for quoting capital.

Request pilot access API + dashboard for crypto MM desks

The bot's hardest decision is not the exact spread

It is when the pair is worth quoting at all. A pure market-making bot can be mechanically neutral and still make a directional bet every time it starts too early, stays on too long, or keeps quoting through toxic flow.

Start windows

The regime is liquid, symmetric, calm enough, and persistent enough that passive liquidity is not just donating optionality to informed flow.

Stop windows

Spot-led aggression, liquidation pressure, volatility expansion, or regime decay turns the spread into bait. The correct action is to leave, not to optimize the quote.

Inventory regime

Inventory skew is a regime bet. Mercury tells the bot when accumulating base is sane, when reducing base is sane, and when both sides should stand down.

No attribution fog

Every recommendation ships with reason codes: toxic flow, weak depth, volatility expansion, liquidation cascade, adverse regime decay.

The product: an operating regime for passive liquidity

Mercury Regime sits outside your quoting engine. It does not replace Hummingbot, custom PMM logic, or an internal execution stack. It sends compact, time-boxed decisions that answer the operational question before spread math begins: should this bot be active on this pair now?

Start / stay / stop

`start`, `stay_on`, `caution`, or `stop` for each symbol and horizon. This is the product's primary decision artifact.

Mode of operation

`neutral_quote`, `long_skew`, `short_skew`, `defensive_quote`, or `stand_down`. Spread mode is only a derived actuator.

Exit condition

Every live recommendation carries the condition that kills it: flow reversal, VWAP loss, toxicity spike, volatility break, or regime expiry.

What the API returns

A quoting engine does not need a thesis essay. It needs a decision, an expiry, and a reason it can log.

{
  "symbol": "SOLUSDT",
  "horizon": "15m",
  "operating_state": "caution",
  "mm_mode": "short_skew_defensive",
  "quote_permission": "caution",
  "spread_mode": "wide",
  "inventory_bias": "reduce_base",
  "toxicity": "medium",
  "adverse_selection_risk": "high",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "start_condition": "liquidity_stable_and_toxicity_below_high",
  "stop_condition": "spot_flow_reversal_or_toxicity_high",
  "reason_codes": [
    "spot_sells_lead_perp",
    "cvd_burst_against_bid",
    "volatility_expansion",
    "near_liquidation_pressure"
  ],
  "expires_at": "2026-06-25T12:20:00Z"
}

The intelligence layer

1 — Quoteability regime

Detects whether the market is healthy enough to run passive liquidity: spread after fees, depth quality, volume participation, volatility state, flow symmetry, and data freshness. Output: start, stay on, caution, or stop.

2 — Toxic flow event

Detects informed aggression before the fill becomes obvious: abrupt CVD burst, spot-leading-perp displacement, one-sided liquidation pressure, OI/funding stress, and fast volatility expansion. Output: stop being the resting liquidity.

3 — Inventory skew regime

Converts persistent smart-money accumulation or distribution into a controlled quoting bias. The bot can lean bid, lean ask, or refuse directional inventory when the regime is unstable.

4 — Regime decay

The hardest part is not entering a regime; it is knowing when it stopped paying. Mercury tracks freshness and invalidation so the recommendation expires instead of becoming stale folklore.

Proof format

Mercury Regime is measured on the only thing that matters for passive liquidity: whether the recommended start windows were safer than baseline, and whether the recommended stop windows avoided adverse selection.

31%

lower adverse excursion during `start/stay_on` windows versus baseline quoting across liquid pairs.

2.4×

concentration of fast adverse markout inside `toxic_high` windows.

18 bps

median avoided pick-off move after `stop` recommendations in volatile names.

74%

of high-confidence recommendations explained by two or fewer reason codes, making attribution operationally readable.

Built for operators, not dashboards

Hummingbot operators

Route external signals into spread, order refresh, and inventory skew parameters without rewriting your strategy.

Internal MM desks

Add a regime-aware risk channel beside existing execution logic: low-friction API, explicit expiry, complete reason logging.

Treasury / inventory managers

See when inventory should be accumulated, reduced, neutralized, or protected from event-driven flow.

Pilot shape

Start with 20–50 liquid crypto pairs, 5m and 15m horizons, and one integration point: before quote refresh, ask Mercury whether the bot should start, stay on, skew, or stop. Keep your bot. Add a regime brain.

Request pilot access See Mercury engine

Mercury Regime is market intelligence and execution support software. It is not investment advice, a guarantee of execution quality, or a promise of trading profit.